个例研究

2019年2月6日

  1. 使用WRFDA 3DVar同化观测资料，研究GPS资料和洋面散射计反演的风场对预报的影响

    为了评估GPS ZTD观测资料和洋面风观测对预报的影响，我们设计了5个试验如下表：

    试验设计（注：常规观测包括：synop，sound，metar，ship，buoy）
    试验 常规观测 GPS ZTD ASCAT
    WRF-GFS No No No
    WRF-3dvar Yes Yes Yes
    常规观测 Yes No No
    常规观测+GPS Yes Yes No
    常规观测+ASCAT Yes No Yes
    ../_images/20190206_domain.png

    试验区域设置：15KM分辨率

  2. 使用的观测资料的分布

    ../_images/20190206_synop.PNG

    2019020600Z +/-1.5小时地面观测

    ../_images/20190206_metar.PNG

    2019020600Z +/-1.5小时航空地面观测

    ../_images/20190206_sound.PNG

    2019020600Z +/-1.5小时探空观测

    ../_images/20190206_ship.PNG

    2019020600Z +/-1.5小时船舶观测

    ../_images/20190206_buoy.PNG

    2019020600Z +/-1.5小时浮标观测

    ../_images/20190206_gps.PNG

    2019020600Z +/-1.5小时GPSZTD观测

    ../_images/20190206_ascat.PNG

    2019020600Z +/-1.5小时洋面风观测

  3. 预报技巧评分

    地面要素24小时预报技巧评分（From MET)
    domain 1                    
      wrf-GFS FCST_VAR FBAR FSTDEV OBAR OSTDEV PR_CORR ME MBIAS RMSE
        U10 0.20732 4.25166 0.58394 3.28761 0.77204 -0.37662 0.35503 2.72835
        V10 -0.99428 4.71436 -0.73526 3.96007 0.78986 -0.25902 1.35229 2.91245
        T2 268.9087 20.08491 269.59786 19.4084 0.99427 -0.68916 0.99744 2.32429
        Q2 0.0050256 0.0054933 0.0045592 0.0050422 0.98736 0.00046639 1.1023 0.0010589
        PSFC 94617.83736 9584.02649 94492.49665 9551.55524 0.9998 125.34071 1.00133 230.82782
                         
      wrf-3dvar FCST_VAR FBAR FSTDEV OBAR OSTDEV PR_CORR ME MBIAS RMSE
        U10 0.46409 4.00187 0.58394 3.28761 0.81652 -0.11986 0.79475 2.31354
        V10 -1.0925 4.80702 -0.73526 3.96007 0.85248 -0.35724 1.48587 2.54188
        T2 268.69331 20.25166 269.59786 19.4084 0.99515 -0.90455 0.99664 2.31167
        Q2 0.0050013 0.0055009 0.0045592 0.0050422 0.98819 0.00044208 1.09696 0.00103
        PSFC 94600.49736 9559.9222 94492.49665 9551.55524 0.99987 108.00072 1.00114 185.93934
                         
      常规观测 FCST_VAR FBAR FSTDEV OBAR OSTDEV PR_CORR ME MBIAS RMSE
        U10 0.44469 3.98806 0.58394 3.28761 0.81915 -0.13925 0.76153 2.29177
        V10 -1.07372 4.76329 -0.73526 3.96007 0.85815 -0.33846 1.46032 2.47205
        T2 268.71405 20.25839 269.59786 19.4084 0.99526 -0.88381 0.99672 2.28751
        Q2 0.0050173 0.0055269 0.0045592 0.0050422 0.98805 0.00045813 1.10049 0.0010541
        PSFC 94602.90383 9561.99495 94492.49665 9551.55524 0.99988 110.40718 1.00117 184.18882
                         
    domain 2                    
      wrf-GFS FCST_VAR FBAR FSTDEV OBAR OSTDEV PR_CORR ME MBIAS RMSE
        U10 -2.49583 4.27277 -0.0042172 3.01806 0.85871 -2.49162 591.81899 3.3803
        V10 -8.49197 4.56557 -7.86428 4.76493 0.89115 -0.62769 1.07981 2.27368
        T2 266.7145 7.65718 267.0631 7.12155 0.97248 -0.34861 0.99869 1.84642
        Q2 0.0018773 0.0013412 0.001545 0.0012491 0.94607 0.00033226 1.21505 0.00054733
        PSFC 101190.3679 3736.6536 100914.6523 3766.92087 0.99681 275.7157 1.00273 408.36071
                         
      wrf-3dvar FCST_VAR FBAR FSTDEV OBAR OSTDEV PR_CORR ME MBIAS RMSE
        U10 -1.83168 4.05118 -0.0042172 3.01806 0.89081 -1.82746 434.33183 2.66022
        V10 -9.82049 4.08608 -7.86428 4.76493 0.91444 -1.95621 1.24875 2.76032
        T2 266.28106 8.14943 267.0631 7.12155 0.98578 -0.78204 0.99707 1.82156
        Q2 0.0018496 0.0013534 0.001545 0.0012491 0.96419 0.00030454 1.19711 0.00047403
        PSFC 101148.623 3759.25614 100914.6523 3766.92087 0.99656 233.97075 1.00232 390.05853
                         
      常规观测 FCST_VAR FBAR FSTDEV OBAR OSTDEV PR_CORR ME MBIAS RMSE
        U10 -1.85461 4.06742 -0.0042172 3.01806 0.89114 -1.85039 439.77057 2.68283
        V10 -9.81927 4.09922 -7.86428 4.76493 0.91545 -1.95499 1.24859 2.751
        T2 266.29962 8.13439 267.0631 7.12155 0.98559 -0.76348 0.99714 1.81057
        Q2 0.0018563 0.0013653 0.001545 0.0012491 0.96419 0.00031127 1.20146 0.00048221
        PSFC 101141.9951 3757.44566 100914.6523 3766.92087 0.99655 227.34287 1.00225 386.40364